Real estate, like all markets, is governed by the fundamental principles of supply and demand, and few factors predict demand as consistently as population growth. If you want to know where real estate values will have appreciated the most in ten years from now, look no further than the areas with the most robust population growth.
In the ten years since the 2000 Census, there have been some substantial population shifts, which may prove indicators of continuing trends in population.
Currently, the fastest growing city per capita is New Orleans, due to its sudden loss of half of its citizens in the aftermath of 2005′s Hurricane Katrina. Fortunately for the Birthplace of Jazz, the city has steadily climbed in population since that disastrous event, and in the last year has grown by 8.2%. This puts its population at 311,853, which is still considerably down from its pre-Katrina population of 484,674 citizens.
In contrast, the fastest growing city in total population is New York City, which retains its commanding lead as the most populous city in America with 8.4 million people (the next highest is Los Angeles with 3.9 million). New York City added 53,500 newcomers in the last year, and 355,065 new residents since the 2000 Census.
For the second and third highest cities for total growth in the last year, you have to shift your gaze to the Southwest, where Phoenix added 33,184 new residents and Houston added 33,063 (curiously, a difference of only 121 people). Further illustrating the shift towards the Southwest, two of the three runners up for highest growth per capita also fall here, with Round Rock, TX experiencing 8.2% growth, and Gilbert, AZ boasting 5% growth (rounding out that list is Cary, NC with 6.9%). If you look back to the 2000 Census, the highest rate of growth can be found in McKinney, TX, which more than doubled in only ten years, and is now home to 121,211.
Experts say that most of the highest growth areas attribute their upward flux in population to migration and immigration, rather than high birth rates. Further, aging and retired portions of the Midwest and Eastern populations are moving south and west in record numbers, to enjoy the less harsh winters and more relaxed pace of life.
Where there are people moving into an area, that area experiences heightened demand, which often brings with it a far greater potential than is immediately realized. Families who move to an area expand from a single household to multiple households within a few years, as teenage children move out, and couples quickly trade upward in real estate as they begin to have children and require more bedrooms. While there is some increased demand immediately felt when people move, wise real estate investors can take advantage of delayed trends in areas with population influxes, and take advantage of secondary repercussions of population gain.
By: Brian Gregory
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